I have been predicting a bust in equities for so long that, over the course of time, I have engendered a reputational problem. I never said the timing of a system reset was easy (no bells are rung at tops). But, even after protecting myself with a long list of caveats, it is clear that the market reset I keep on anticipating, is long overdue. That’s a fact that I will reluctantly admit to (like it or not).
Thankfully, by now it is not only me. We are a solid bunch in the back and front benches of the “conspirationist horde” that believe all market pricing is now fake. That “we” includes us Austrian economists, Macros, and Hedge Fund managers, together with a bunch of the established banks that are ostensibly moving to the dark side of the force.
The issue is that it hurts our egos (and our pockets) to see that equity market pricing is conspicuously proving us wrong. Nothing exceptional. We are all wrong more frequently than we would care to admit, and I am no living exception. The odd thing is that this time around, we got the reasoning, and the economic modeling right. A lot better for sure than the varied DGSE models run by the Fed banks. We anticipated the global macro outcome quite neatly, and we got the bond and currency markets mostly right. How come equity markets are not providing us with our well-deserved success fee?
Looking back, it’s been nearly a decade since a couple of us, timidly at first, began to explain the inconsistencies in the Central Bank driven, global pricing model for financial assets. It has been a long slog for an initially pitiful group of free thinkers. We were mostly on our own until we got to this point when the big names in investment and even Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Citi, Goldman, or Bank of America are expressing their concern for the ridiculous mispricing of assets. A ridiculous price level that only subsists because of the orgy of Central Bank, printing, nirping and outright manipulation. Not new. We said we were blowing a new bubble, years ago, but nobody listened. Now the big players are joining in.
Icahn, Gundlach, Bass, Druckenmiller, Gross, Grantham, Soros, Edwards, and many others are now clear, and outspoken, about the massive risks to the system that go unobserved for the majority of investors. It is easier for them than for the banks, they have weaker links to the establishment. Anyway, be it by relevant investors and analysts, Banks, or us bloggers and small size investment offices, I think the message has been clearly formulated. By now even dumb market players should be hinting that all is not well with actual market pricing. Yet the conundrum is that markets continue to price risk south (conversely risk assets are bid up).
From a purely intellectual standpoint, I feel my views have been vindicated by events. Most of the Keynesians are jumping ship, and converting to Say’s law in droves. The world economy is in a dreadful state after years of printing and lending. Nevertheless, I think it’s hopeless to treat myself and readers with more of the same reasoning. We deserve better.
We all know by now, that the great moderation and the subsequent grand monetary experiment did not succeed. Great! But what’s the use of winning the reasoning contest, if you cannot use your prescience to generate financial returns? I remember Bill Gross stating some time ago, that it is not about getting the GDP prognosis right, but about anticipating the shape of the yield curve. Despite being notoriously right in our real economy prognosis, explicitly suggesting how inefficient and wasteful this money printing and nirping episode would turn out to be, something is amiss or underestimated in our reasoning. Continue reading